Well Steve Balmer's been at it again. Even since the Novell deal members of the open source community have speculated that it was only a matter of time before Microsoft pulled the last card from its deck. The patent card.
At the moment Microsoft is only bluffing hoping that everyone else just folds. Their assertion that there are unspecified patent infringement in open source technologies might frighten some but most are keen to see Microsoft's hand.
I think it is unlikely that we will see any real information from then anytime soon. I suspect that they are going to go around, intimidating some middle tier American and European companies into paying them some cash, in return for not having the nasty thing they promise to do, done to them. Kinda like protection money.
One of the main reasons I don't think we will see any concrete move on Microsoft's part is that a patent war is mutually assured destruction (MAD). Any of us who grew up during the cold war will know what that means. The fact that Bill will resign his post some time next year, I think, is indication enough that even Microsoft knows its monopoly is over. A new leader is needed for a new environment but they can postpone it for a while. Just like Ford is now one of many car manufacturers so Microsoft will be one software provider amongst many. They will probably remain the largest.
In the long term it appears that the US patent system and the new protectionism of Intellectual Property rights will implode in on itself much like their DRM laws of today.
I am all for the just protection of inventions and intellectual property but currently IP laws are not being used to advance innovation and technology but rather as the new trade barriers to replace the old government subsidies used to prop-up ailing industries at the expense of the public good.
BTW South Africa does not support software patents so this is not so much of an issue for us. However what-ever happens in the US always affects the rest of the world so it is more than just academic interest for us in how this pans out.